My Account Log Out

reorder

Gardner Minshew

Gardner Minshew TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Gardner Minshew TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+142/-188).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +144 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +142.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Raiders are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being projected in this game) usually correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense last year: 8th-most in the NFL.

The Raiders offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Last year, the feeble Chargers defense has conceded a monstrous 1.53 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the 8th-worst rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in the league (57.0% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Las Vegas Raiders.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are projected by the model to call only 61.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.

The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 4th-fewest plays in the league last year, totaling a lowly 54.8 plays per game.

The leading projections forecast Gardner Minshew to attempt 32.3 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.

With a lackluster 61.9% Adjusted Completion% (13th percentile) last year, Gardner Minshew rates as one of the least accurate QBs in football.

More Gardner Minshew Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™