Gardner Minshew TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Gardner Minshew

NFL · Player Props

Gardner Minshew

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Gardner Minshew TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are anticipated by the projections to call 66.7 total plays in this contest: the most among all teams this week.
The 8th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Colts this year (a colossal 61.9 per game on average).
The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Gardner Minshew's 64.7% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a noteworthy gain in his throwing accuracy over last year's 58.0% mark.
The Panthers defense has given up the 9th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.43 per game this year.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive strategy to skew 1.0% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Colts to pass on 55.3% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.6 per game) this year.

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