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Gardner Minshew

Gardner Minshew TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints

Gardner Minshew TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.

Gardner Minshew's 66.8% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a noteable boost in his throwing precision over last season's 58.0% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive blueprint to tilt 1.6% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.

The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 52.9% red zone pass rate.

In racking up a mere 28.2 pass attempts per game this year, Gardner Minshew ranks among the bottom QBs in football (19th percentile) for this stat.

Gardner Minshew has been among the bottom touchdown throwers in football this year, averaging a miserable 0.83 per game while ranking in the 22nd percentile.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the league against the Saints defense this year (62.5% Adjusted Completion%).

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