Gardner Minshew TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Gardner Minshew

NFL · Player Props

Gardner Minshew

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Gardner Minshew TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 8th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a whopping 60.3 per game on average).
As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Colts profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.
Gardner Minshew's throwing precision has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 58.0% to 63.3%.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Tennessee Titans defense this year (75.5% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts as the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 5th-least pass-centric team in football near the goal line (52.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Indianapolis Colts.
This year, the strong Tennessee Titans defense has yielded a mere 1.09 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 6th-lowest rate in football.

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