Gardner Minshew Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Gardner Minshew

NFL · Player Props

Gardner Minshew

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:36 AM EST

Analysis

Gardner Minshew Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive strategy to skew 1.0% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Colts to run on 44.7% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are anticipated by the projections to call 66.7 total plays in this contest: the most among all teams this week.
The 8th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Colts this year (a colossal 61.9 per game on average).
The opposing side have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the league (157 per game) versus the Panthers defense this year.

Favors Under

In this week's game, Gardner Minshew is predicted by the model to accrue the 7th-fewest carries out of all QBs with 2.9.
Gardner Minshew is not a mobile quarterback and has accounted for a lowly 4.6% of his offense's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 18th percentile among quarterbacks.
Gardner Minshew has averaged a measly 7.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest marks in the NFL when it comes to quarterbacks (17th percentile).

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