Gabriel Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -192 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Gabriel Davis's 69.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a a noteworthy progression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 53.0% rate.
The New England Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.7%) to WRs this year (68.7%).
The Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 10th-worst collection of CBs in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Gabriel Davis has been used much less in his team's passing offense.

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