Gabriel Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-156/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -148 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 61.3% of their plays: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: most in football.
When it comes to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 6th-best in football this year.
Gabriel Davis's 61.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a noteable boost in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 53.0% mark.
The Philadelphia cornerbacks rank as the 5th-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

In terms of a defense's influence on pace, at 29.17 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Bills to be the most sluggish in football (context-neutralized) at the present time.
Gabriel Davis's 39.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 49.8.
This year, the strong Eagles defense has yielded a meager 63.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 10th-best rate in football.

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