Gabriel Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -172 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.9% pass rate.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in football this year.
Gabriel Davis's 64.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a meaningful growth in his pass-catching ability over last season's 53.0% rate.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has been gouged for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (75%) versus wide receivers this year (75.0%).
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Denver's collection of LBs has been dreadful this year, grading out as the worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 61.0 total plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: fewest in football.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Gabriel Davis has been used much less in his offense's pass attack.

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