Gabriel Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-101/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +109 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Gabe Davis has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (95.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (49.3%).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has allowed the highest Completion% in football (75.1%) versus WRs this year (75.1%).

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
Gabe Davis's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 61.6% to 55.6%.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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