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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-145).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Gabe Davis to be a more important option in his offense's passing attack this week (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.2% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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