Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
With an impressive 86.3% Route Participation% (76th percentile) this year, Gabriel Davis places as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
The Bills O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Gabriel Davis's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 53.0% to 66.2%.
Gabriel Davis's 12.2 adjusted yards per target this season signifies a a substantial progression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 8.5 mark.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Gabriel Davis has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (78.0 per game) than he did last season (95.0 per game).
Since the start of last season, the formidable Jaguars defense has conceded a mere 64.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-smallest rate in the NFL.
When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Jacksonville's unit has been fantastic this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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