Foster Moreau Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Foster Moreau

NFL · Player Props

Foster Moreau

TE · Houston Texans

Touchdowns

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 12:37 PM EST

Analysis

Foster Moreau Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+756/-967).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -967.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (59.3% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Texans.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have 132.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
The model projects Foster Moreau to be a less important option in his team's passing game near the goal line this week (7.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
Since the start of last season, the feeble Dallas Cowboys run defense has allowed a monstrous 1.30 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the biggest rate in football.

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