Foster Moreau Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Foster Moreau

NFL · Player Props

Foster Moreau

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Foster Moreau Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+335/-560).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ +335.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
Foster Moreau has accrued a monstrous 27.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among TEs.
Foster Moreau has been among the leading pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 29.0 yards per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.
Foster Moreau has been among the top TEs in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a stellar 7.24 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Saints have been the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Foster Moreau to be a much smaller part of his offense's air attack this week (4.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.3% in games he has played).

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