Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 19, 2024 3:41 AM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-108/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Cowboys have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.
The Houston defensive tackles project as the worst DT corps in the league this year with their run defense.

Favors Under

The Cowboys may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Cooper Rush.
An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Cowboys being a huge -7.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cowboys to run on 39.4% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
Ezekiel Elliott has been a less important option in his team's run game this year (31.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (44.0%).

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