Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to run on 39.0% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Ezekiel Elliott has been a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this year (35.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (50.9%).
Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (31.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).
Ezekiel Elliott profiles as one of the weakest running backs in football at generating extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 2.37 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 22nd percentile.

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