Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Ezekiel Elliott has picked up 59.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (84th percentile).
The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Patriots rank as the 7th-least run-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 31.4% run rate.
The New England Patriots have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (33.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (50.0% in games he has played).
Ezekiel Elliott's rushing efficiency (3.97 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (24th percentile among running backs).

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