Ezekiel Elliott Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+154/-212).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -198 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -212.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Ezekiel Elliott has run for 0.57 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (87th percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 9th-most TDs in football (1.11 per game) versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game near the end zone this week (32.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.5% in games he has played).
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the best group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

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