Ezekiel Elliott Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing TD

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 3:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+154/-214).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +154 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys have been the 10th-most run-oriented team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 50.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to call the 5th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Ezekiel Elliott has run for 0.57 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in football among running backs (88th percentile).
The Green Bay Packers safeties project as the 25th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game near the end zone this week (39.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.5% in games he has played).

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