Ezekiel Elliott Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 12:13 AM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+155/-217).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +174 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 66.6 plays per game.
Ezekiel Elliott has garnered 56.2% of his team's red zone carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
The Dallas Cowboys O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for 0.56 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (92nd percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 8th-least run-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 40.7% red zone run rate.
Opposing squads have run for the 5th-least TDs in the NFL (0.65 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

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