Ezekiel Elliott Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
Ezekiel Elliott's 89.6% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a noteable gain in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 72.6% mark.

Favors Under

Ezekiel Elliott's 27.3% Route Participation Rate this year marks a substantial decrease in his passing offense utilization over last year's 44.1% mark.
When talking about pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's collection of safeties has been very good this year, ranking as the best in football.

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