Ezekiel Elliott Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 134.8 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The New England Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 64.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Ezekiel Elliott's pass-catching performance been refined this year, compiling 2.1 adjusted catches vs just 1.1 last year.
Ezekiel Elliott's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 72.6% to 91.6%.

Favors Under

The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
Ezekiel Elliott has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (29.1% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (44.1%).
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
This year, the stout Saints defense has conceded a measly 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 8th-lowest rate in the league.

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