Ezekiel Elliott Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:01 PM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 66.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Ezekiel Elliott's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 72.6% to 100.0%.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The New York Jets pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (75.6%) to running backs since the start of last season (75.6%).
The New York Jets linebackers project as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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