Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
Ezekiel Elliott's 89.6% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a noteable gain in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 72.6% mark.
Since the start of last season, the weak Dolphins defense has been gouged for the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing RBs: a massive 6.69 yards.

Favors Under

Ezekiel Elliott's 27.3% Route Participation Rate this year marks a substantial decrease in his passing offense utilization over last year's 44.1% mark.
Ezekiel Elliott has put up a meager -2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 25th percentile when it comes to RBs.
When talking about pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
Ezekiel Elliott comes in as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the league among running backs, averaging a lowly 3.87 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 12th percentile.
Ezekiel Elliott's 3.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a substantial decline in his effectiveness in space over last year's 6.4% figure.