Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Ezekiel Elliott has run fewer routes this year (25.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (44.1%).
Ezekiel Elliott has notched a mere -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 21st percentile among running backs.
Ezekiel Elliott has been among the bottom RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 6.0 yards per game while ranking in the 25th percentile among running backs.
Ezekiel Elliott has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the league among RBs, averaging a lowly 3.43 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 11th percentile.
The Cowboys defense has conceded the 5th-fewest receiving yards per game in the league (just 25.0) vs. RBs since the start of last season.

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