Evan Engram Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+413/-426).
Key Factors
Favors Over
At the moment, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (60.0% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Broncos.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 8th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.94 seconds per snap.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
Evan Engram ranks in the 83rd percentile among tight ends this year with a staggering 11.4% of his team's air yards accumulated.
Evan Engram's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 68.7% to 75.0%.
Favors Under
The Broncos are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Denver Broncos to pass on 57.3% of their downs: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Denver Broncos profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in football versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (66.0% Adjusted Completion%).