Evan Engram Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Denver Broncos

Touchdowns

San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 2, 2026 3:17 PM EST

Analysis

Evan Engram Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+529/-788).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -788.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (61.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Broncos.
As far as a defense's effect on pace, at 27.85 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Broncos to be the 6th-quickest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
The 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (34.1 per game) since the start of last season.
The projections expect Evan Engram to be a more important option in his team's passing attack near the end zone in this week's contest (11.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Since the start of last season, the imposing 49ers defense has allowed a paltry 73.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 8th-smallest rate in the league.