Evan Engram Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (63.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jaguars.
The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Evan Engram has run a route on 87.5% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The predictive model expects Evan Engram to notch 7.8 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Evan Engram's receiving skills have improved this season, compiling 5.7 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 4.3 last season.

Favors Under

This year, the fierce Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed a meager 59.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the best rate in the NFL.
As it relates to linebackers rushing the passer, Pittsburgh's LB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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