Evan Engram Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 5, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-180/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -175 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a monstrous 60.3 per game on average).
The projections expect Evan Engram to garner 6.7 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
Evan Engram's 42.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 36.6.
Evan Engram's receiving talent has been refined this year, notching 5.8 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 4.3 last year.
Evan Engram's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 74.6% to 80.2%.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Jaguars being a massive 10.5-point favorite in this game.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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