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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers

Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to total 6.3 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

Evan Engram's 36.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 28.6.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in the NFL.

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (60.4%) vs. TEs this year (60.4%).

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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