Evan Engram Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-170/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to earn 6.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
Evan Engram's 37.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 28.6.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.