Evan Engram Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
Evan Engram has run a route on 80.0% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to garner 5.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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