Evan Engram Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 14, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-104/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Broncos to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Denver Broncos last year (a staggering 59.7 per game on average).
The leading projections forecast Evan Engram to garner 4.6 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
With a high 13.1% Target% (75th percentile) last year, Evan Engram places as one of the tight ends with the most usage in the NFL.

Favors Under

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.
Evan Engram rates as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among TEs, completing just 69.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, checking in at the 9th percentile.
With a subpar 6.0 adjusted yards per target (8th percentile) last year, Evan Engram stands among the worst pass-game tight ends in the NFL.
Evan Engram has been one of the weakest TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.