Evan Engram Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 61.7% of their plays: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The Jaguars have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
With a high 84.0% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) this year, Evan Engram rates among the tight ends with the most usage in the NFL.
In this contest, Evan Engram is forecasted by the model to finish in the 95th percentile among TEs with 6.7 targets.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 9th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Evan Engram has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (27.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
This year, the imposing Bills defense has given up a paltry 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 8th-fewest in the league.
Since the start of last season, the fierce Bills defense has conceded the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing TEs: a meager 5.6 yards.

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