Evan Engram Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+106/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Evan Engram has run a route on 80.9% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to accrue 4.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
Evan Engram has posted a monstrous 22.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Evan Engram has been among the least efficient receivers in the NFL among TEs, averaging just 5.67 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.
Evan Engram has been among the bottom TEs in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 4.15 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 22nd percentile.

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