Evan Engram Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+372/-753).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -705 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -753.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to be a more important option in his offense's passing offense near the end zone this week (15.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.5% in games he has played).
Evan Engram has accrued quite a few more air yards this season (44.0 per game) than he did last season (24.0 per game).
Evan Engram's 33.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 28.6.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Evan Engram has not scored a TD through the air this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.