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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys

Evan Engram Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+240/-384).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -334 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -384.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Evan Engram has accrued many more air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).

Evan Engram's 36.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 28.6.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the 2nd-least passing TDs in football to tight ends: 0.08 per game this year.

The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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