Evan Engram Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-519).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +313 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +295.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Evan Engram has totaled many more air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).
Evan Engram's 31.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 85th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions safeties project as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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