Evan Engram Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+258/-426).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -422 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -426.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to be a more important option in his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (14.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.1% in games he has played).
Evan Engram has put up far more air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (24.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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