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Eric Saubert

Eric Saubert Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 6

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Eric Saubert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+116/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -146.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Eric Saubert has accrued significantly more air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (3.0 per game).

Eric Saubert's 16.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 4.0.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Eric Saubert's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 71.5% to 56.2%.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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