Equanimeous St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Equanimeous St. Brown

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Equanimeous St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+190/-250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Equanimeous St. Brown has been a more integral piece of his team's passing offense this season (16.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (3.7%).
The Chicago Bears offensive line has afforded their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Equanimeous St. Brown has been among the most hard-handed receivers in football, completing a measly 53.4% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 7th percentile among WRs