Equanimeous St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Equanimeous St. Brown

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Equanimeous St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-194).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +148 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Equanimeous St. Brown to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack this week (15.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.1% in games he has played).
The Houston Texans safeties project as the worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.