Equanimeous St. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Equanimeous St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Equanimeous St. Brown

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 8, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Equanimeous St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+385/-798).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68.4%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (68.4%).
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 58.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Equanimeous St. Brown has posted a meager 12.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 19th percentile among wideouts.
Equanimeous St. Brown's 9.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the worst in football: 16th percentile for WRs.
Equanimeous St. Brown ranks in the 1st percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers project as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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