Emari Demercado Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Emari Demercado

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Emari Demercado Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+641/-809).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (59.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Cowboys.
The 4th-most plays in football have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.4 per game on average).
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are projected by the predictive model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
Emari Demercado has been has not been looked to very often his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks in the 1st percentile when it comes to RBs.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season.
Emari Demercado ranks as one of the worst possession receivers in football when it comes to running backs, hauling in a mere 73.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, checking in at the 25th percentile.
Since the start of last season, the strong Ravens defense has surrendered a mere 0.16 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing running backs: the 10th-smallest rate in the NFL.