Emari Demercado Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Emari Demercado

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Emari Demercado Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+600/-680).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +715 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +600.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.5% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Dallas Cowboys last year (a colossal 60.6 per game on average).
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
As it relates to air yards, Emari Demercado grades out in the lofty 90th percentile among RBs last year, totaling a massive 2.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 3-point favorite in this game.
When talking about pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 2nd-worst in football last year.
With a weak 73.7% Adjusted Catch Rate (25th percentile) last year, Emari Demercado places as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among RBs.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 4th-most TDs in the NFL (1.24 per game) against the Giants defense last year.