Elijah Moore Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 3:02 PM EST

Analysis

Elijah Moore Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1438/-5456).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to call the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Philadelphia's passing stats last year may be artificially decreased (and rushing stats too high) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with improved weather in this game.
The Philadelphia O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL last year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Commanders pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68%) vs. wide receivers last year (68.0%).
Last year, the porous Commanders defense has surrendered a monstrous 1.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the 7th-worst rate in football.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 53.4% red zone run rate.
The Eagles have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
Elijah Moore, who has been given 2.5% of his offense's carries near the end zone last year (95th percentile), is in the unique position (for a wide receiver) of being involved in the Eagles red zone ground game.