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Elijah Moore

Elijah Moore Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Elijah Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-180/+150).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per play.

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Elijah Moore has been used less as a potential target this year (88.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (65.9%).

The New York Jets O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (61.5%) versus wideouts this year (61.5%).

The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 9th-best group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a mere 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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