Elijah Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.
The New York Jets O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Elijah Moore has been a much smaller part of his team's pass attack this year (11.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.5%).
Elijah Moore's play as a receiver has diminished this season, compiling just 2.6 yards per game vs 3.9 last season.
Elijah Moore has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, hauling in a measly 59.2% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 13th percentile among wideouts
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.