Elijah Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Elijah Moore

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 4:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns may take to the air less in this game (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup quarterback PJ Walker.
A passing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -6.5-point underdog this week.
The 2nd-most plays in the league have been called by the Browns this year (a whopping 66.2 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Elijah Moore's 20.8% Target Share this season represents a a meaningful improvement in his passing attack utilization over last season's 11.2% mark.

Favors Under

Right now, the 9th-least pass-centric team in the league (58.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Browns.
Our trusted projections expect the Browns to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically cause decreased passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
Elijah Moore's pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating just 5.96 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.75 mark last season.
Elijah Moore has been among the weakest WRs in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 23rd percentile.

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