Elijah Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Elijah Moore

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns may take to the air less in this game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 66.3 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in football.
Elijah Moore's 86.2% Route% this season shows a material growth in his air attack volume over last season's 75.6% rate.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Browns to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Elijah Moore's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 65.3% to 60.1%.
Elijah Moore's receiving effectiveness has tailed off this season, notching a measly 6.67 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.75 figure last season.
The Jaguars cornerbacks profile as the 6th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

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