Elijah Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Elijah Moore

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+359/-711).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +397 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +359.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per play.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Elijah Moore to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (17.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (10.3% in games he has played).
The New York Jets O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

Elijah Moore has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (65.0 per game) than he did last year (83.0 per game).
Elijah Moore's 36.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 48.5.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Elijah Moore ranks in the 1st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (61.5%) versus wideouts this year (61.5%).

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